· Analysis updated 16:20 UTC
Pierikos vs Veria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for Pierikos and 1.33 for Veria, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Veria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.5% probability
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pierikos home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Veria away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Veria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 29% / 28% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for Pierikos and 1.33 for Veria, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–112.7%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–28.6%
Recent form
Pierikos
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarakinos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis Larissa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Veria · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Alexandreia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou · 0-4 (L)
Veria
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Alexandros Florinas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vatolakkos · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pierikos · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ermis Exochi · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poseidon Nea Michaniona | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Finikas Polichnis | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Mpam | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 4 | Iraklis Therm. | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 5 | Agiou Nikolaou | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Makedonikos Neapolis | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | Polykastrou | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Akrites Sykeon | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Panedessaikos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 10 | Kilkisiakos | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | PAO Kristoni | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.