· Analysis updated 18:15 UTC
Piešťany vs Spartak Trnava Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Piešťany and 1.83 for Spartak Trnava, a combined total of 3.73. That distribution gives Piešťany the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.2% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Piešťany home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Trnava away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Piešťany to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 22% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Piešťany and 1.83 for Spartak Trnava, a combined 3.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.3%
- 2–17.9%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.3%
- 3–15.0%
Recent form
Piešťany
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kopčany · 8-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Tovarníky · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-07-18T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Duslo Šaľa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Strání · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-07-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Myjava · 0-4 (L)
Spartak Trnava
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunajska Streda · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Košice · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ružomberok · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Púchov · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Žilina · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.