Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani · Referee G. Sciolti · Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
Pineto vs Grosseto Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Pineto and 1.13 for Grosseto, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Grosseto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
73.3% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pineto home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grosseto to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 27% / 31% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Pineto and 1.13 for Grosseto, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 31% and both teams to score at 38%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.0%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–29.0%
Recent form
Pineto
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Grosseto · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Campobasso FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Forli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sambenedettese · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Perugia · 1-2 (L)
Grosseto
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Perugia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Campobasso FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Pianese · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Latina · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Torres · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | Ravenna | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 3 | Grosseto | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Torres | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Livorno | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Reggiana | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Perugia | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 8 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Campobasso FC | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Forli | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Vado | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Pescara | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Ostia Mare | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Atalanta II | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Latina | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Pianese | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Pineto | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Gubbio | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 19 | Sambenedettese | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 20 | Vis Pesaro | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.