· Analysis updated 19:00 UTC
Pinheiros vs Tupy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Pinheiros and 1.97 for Tupy, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Tupy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tupy win
55.5% probability
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tupy away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tupy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 23% / 22% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.19 goals for Pinheiros and 1.97 for Tupy, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–18.3%
- 0–28.2%
- 1–36.4%
Recent form
Pinheiros
Tupy
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela do Norte · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Brasil ES · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rive · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Pinheiros · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Estrela do Norte · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Capixaba B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estrela do Norte | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Linhares | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 18 |
| 3 | Rive | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Audax São Mateus | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 5 | GEL | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Doze | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 7 | Tupy | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Sport Brasil ES | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | CTE Colatina | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -28 | 1 |
| 10 | Pinheiros | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -22 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tupy win, at 55.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.