· Analysis updated 03:42 UTC
Pinneberg vs Süderelbe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Pinneberg and 1.33 for Süderelbe, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Pinneberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pinneberg home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Süderelbe away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pinneberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 25% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Pinneberg and 1.33 for Süderelbe, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–08.9%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–17.9%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Pinneberg
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Hamburg · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vorwärts-Wacker 04 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:30:00.000Z · A vs HT16 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Niendorfer TSV · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T08:45:00.000Z · A vs Paloma · 2-2 (D)
Süderelbe
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tus Dassendorf · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sasel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T08:45:00.000Z · A vs HEBC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Pinneberg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Hamburg · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Hamburg table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paloma | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 29 |
| 2 | Victoria Hamburg | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 26 |
| 3 | Vorwärts-Wacker 04 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| 4 | Tus Dassendorf | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 23 |
| 5 | HT16 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 23 |
| 6 | Niendorfer TSV | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 23 |
| 7 | Altona 93 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Pinneberg | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 9 | Sasel | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 | Süderelbe | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 11 | HEBC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -4 | 15 |
| 12 | Buchholz | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 15 |
| 13 | ETSV Hamburg | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 | Teutonia Ottensen | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 12 |
| 15 | Nikola Tesla | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Concordia | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 11 |
| 17 | Harksheide | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 18 | Norderstedt II | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.