Pinzgau Saalfelden vs Wallern / Marienkirchen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Pinzgau Saalfelden and 2.75 for Wallern / Marienkirchen, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Wallern / Marienkirchen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Wallern / Marienkirchen win

58.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 2.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pinzgau Saalfelden home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wallern / Marienkirchen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 24% / 18% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Pinzgau Saalfelden and 2.75 for Wallern / Marienkirchen, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 82% and both teams to score at 77%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.

Match result (1X2)

Pinzgau Saalfelden win24%

Draw18%

Wallern / Marienkirchen win59%

Double chance 1X

41%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals82%

Over 3.5 goals66%

Both teams to score77%

Correct score

1–27.4%
1–36.7%
2–26.4%
2–35.9%
1–15.3%

Recent form

Pinzgau Saalfelden

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs SK Vorwarts Steyr · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leonfelden · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Bad Schallerbach · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · A vs UFC Hallein · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gurten · 1-4 (L)

Wallern / Marienkirchen

2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Leonfelden · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bad Schallerbach · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs UFC Hallein · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gurten · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ried II · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - North table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wallern / Marienkirchen	13	9	1	3	21	28
2	LASK Juniors	13	8	3	2	28	27
3	Wals-Grünau	13	7	5	1	11	26
4	Gurten	14	7	3	4	7	24
5	Kuchl	13	6	3	4	1	21
6	Bad Schallerbach	13	5	4	4	7	19
7	Grödig	13	6	1	6	0	19
8	SK Vorwarts Steyr	13	5	3	5	1	18
9	Leonfelden	13	4	5	4	-2	17
10	TSV St. Johann	13	4	4	5	-5	16
11	Ried II	13	4	2	7	-14	14
12	Seekirchen	13	3	4	6	-7	13
13	UFC Hallein	13	3	3	7	-13	12
14	Wohnbau Dietach	13	3	3	7	-17	12
15	Pinzgau Saalfelden	13	1	2	10	-18	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Wallern / Marienkirchen win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.