Pipinsried vs Sturm Hauzenberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Pipinsried and 0.83 for Sturm Hauzenberg, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Pipinsried the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Pipinsried win

64.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.98 – 0.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pipinsried home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sturm Hauzenberg away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pipinsried to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 21% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Pipinsried and 0.83 for Sturm Hauzenberg, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Pipinsried win64%

Draw21%

Sturm Hauzenberg win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

36%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–012.0%
2–011.9%
1–19.9%
2–19.8%
3–07.8%

Recent form

Pipinsried

2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs 1860 München II · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kottern · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs 1860 Rosenheim · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ismaning · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Erlbach · 1-1 (D)

Sturm Hauzenberg

2026-05-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs TSV 1880 Wasserburg · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-21T16:30:00.000Z · A vs TSV 1880 Wasserburg · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Heimstetten · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-08T17:30:00.000Z · H vs TuS Geretsried · 1-4 (L)
2026-04-30T17:30:00.000Z · A vs 1860 München II · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-21T16:00:00.000Z · Pipinsried 5-0 Sturm Hauzenberg (Oberliga - Bayern Süd)
2025-08-08T17:30:00.000Z · Pipinsried 3-0 Sturm Hauzenberg (Oberliga - Bayern Süd)

Oberliga - Bayern Süd table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pipinsried	16	10	3	3	21	33
2	Erlbach	16	9	5	2	13	32
3	1880 Wasserburg	16	10	1	5	11	31
4	Pfaffenhofen	16	8	5	3	4	29
5	Landshut	16	8	4	4	11	28
6	Hankofen-Hailing	16	8	4	4	8	28
7	Sportfreunde Schwaig	16	6	9	1	16	27
8	Ismaning	16	7	2	7	8	23
9	1860 München II	16	5	6	5	3	21
10	Schwabmünchen	16	5	4	7	-1	19
11	Heimstetten	16	4	7	5	-2	19
12	Gundelfingen	16	4	6	6	-2	18
13	Kottern	16	4	6	6	-6	18
14	Deisenhofen	16	4	4	8	-16	16
15	1860 Rosenheim	16	3	6	7	-9	15
16	Kirchanschöring	16	4	3	9	-13	15
17	Schalding-Heining	16	2	4	10	-27	10
18	TuS Geretsried	16	2	3	11	-19	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Pipinsried win, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.