Hristo Botev · Analysis updated 17:14 UTC
Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Pirin Blagoevgrad and 2.03 for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Chernomorets 1919 Burgas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win
64.7% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pirin Blagoevgrad home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chernomorets 1919 Burgas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 15% / 20% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Pirin Blagoevgrad and 2.03 for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.6%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 0–37.8%
Recent form
Pirin Blagoevgrad
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Mezdra · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rilski Sportist · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fratria · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Marek · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ludogorets II · 0-3 (L)
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
- 2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportist Svoge · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Botev Plovdiv · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dobrudzha · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Volov Shumen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Montana · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia II | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 2 | Vihren | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 3 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | Fratria | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Beroe | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Hebar 1918 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 20 |
| 7 | Yantra 2019 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Rilski Sportist | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 10 | Marek | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 | Nesebar | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 12 | Spartak Pleven | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 13 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Ludogorets II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 15 | Sportist Svoge | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 | Montana | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | -31 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.