Hristo Botev · Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
Pirin Blagoevgrad vs CSKA Sofia II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.53 expected goals for Pirin Blagoevgrad and 2.89 for CSKA Sofia II, a combined total of 3.42. That distribution gives CSKA Sofia II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 85%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 85% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CSKA Sofia II win
85.0% probability
Expected goals
0.53 – 2.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pirin Blagoevgrad home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
CSKA Sofia II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CSKA Sofia II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 85%, against 4% / 11% / 85% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.53 goals for Pirin Blagoevgrad and 2.89 for CSKA Sofia II, a combined 3.42 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
15%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
96%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.6%
- 0–313.1%
- 0–49.5%
- 0–19.4%
- 1–27.3%
Recent form
Pirin Blagoevgrad
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Mezdra · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rilski Sportist · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fratria · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Marek · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ludogorets II · 0-3 (L)
CSKA Sofia II
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportist Svoge · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dobrudzha · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Montana · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Pleven · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia II | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Vihren | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Fratria | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Rilski Sportist | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Yantra 2019 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Nesebar | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Beroe | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 | Hebar 1918 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| 11 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 12 | Marek | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 13 | Ludogorets II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Spartak Pleven | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 15 | Montana | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | -29 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CSKA Sofia II win, at 85.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 85% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.