Hristo Botev · Analysis updated 06:53 UTC
Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Pirin Blagoevgrad and 1.98 for Etar Veliko Tarnovo, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Etar Veliko Tarnovo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Etar Veliko Tarnovo win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pirin Blagoevgrad home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Etar Veliko Tarnovo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 31% / 22% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.57 goals for Pirin Blagoevgrad and 1.98 for Etar Veliko Tarnovo, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.9%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.0%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–35.8%
Recent form
Pirin Blagoevgrad
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Mezdra · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rilski Sportist · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fratria · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Marek · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ludogorets II · 0-3 (L)
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fratria · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernomorets Balchik · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-14T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Hebar 1918 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia II | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 2 | Vihren | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 3 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | Fratria | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Beroe | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Hebar 1918 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 20 |
| 7 | Yantra 2019 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Rilski Sportist | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 10 | Marek | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 | Nesebar | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 12 | Spartak Pleven | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 13 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Ludogorets II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 15 | Sportist Svoge | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 | Montana | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | -31 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Etar Veliko Tarnovo win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.