· Analysis updated 16:15 UTC
Pirin Razlog vs Levski Sofia II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Pirin Razlog and 1.60 for Levski Sofia II, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Levski Sofia II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Levski Sofia II win
51.3% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pirin Razlog home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Levski Sofia II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.9%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–07.4%
Recent form
Pirin Razlog
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Sofia II · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Botev Ihtiman · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyustendil · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Simitli · 1-1 (D)
Levski Sofia II
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Natsional Sofia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chavdar Etropole · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia III · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Balkan Botevgrad · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kostinbrod · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-09T13:00:00.000Z · Pirin Razlog 2-0 Levski Sofia II (Third League - Southwest)
- 2025-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Pirin Razlog 1-0 Levski Sofia II (Third League - Southwest)
- 2025-04-02T14:00:00.000Z · Pirin Razlog 1-0 Levski Sofia II (Third League - Southwest)
- 2024-10-30T13:00:00.000Z · Pirin Razlog 2-0 Levski Sofia II (Third League - Southwest)
- 2024-03-16T13:00:00.000Z · Pirin Razlog 1-1 Levski Sofia II (Third League - Southwest)
- 2023-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · Pirin Razlog 0-5 Levski Sofia II (Third League - Southwest)
- 2023-02-22T12:00:00.000Z · Pirin Razlog 0-1 Levski Sofia II (Third League - Southwest)
- 2022-10-12T13:00:00.000Z · Pirin Razlog 0-2 Levski Sofia II (Third League - Southwest)
Third League - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Minyor Pernik | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 29 |
| 2 | Oborishte | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Bansko | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Strumska Slava | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 5 | Septemvri Sofia II | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Balkan Botevgrad | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 7 | Kostinbrod | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Slivnishki geroy | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | CSKA Sofia III | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Botev Ihtiman | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Septemvri Simitli | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 | Chavdar Etropole | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 13 |
| 14 | Levski Sofia II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 15 | Belasitsa | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 11 |
| 16 | Kyustendil | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | Pirin Razlog | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Levski Sofia II win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.