· Analysis updated 13:52 UTC
Piteå vs AIK Stockholm Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Piteå and 1.53 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 3.34. That distribution gives Piteå the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Piteå home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AIK Stockholm away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Piteå to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 23% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Piteå and 1.53 for AIK Stockholm, a combined 3.34 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
Piteå
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gefle IF · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Karlstad · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Assyriska FF · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Järfälla · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Umeå FC · 0-2 (L)
AIK Stockholm
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Halmstad · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjallby AIF · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vasteras SK FK · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Malmo FF · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hammarby FF · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.