Stadion Pitomača · Analysis updated 23:23 UTC
Pitomača vs Graničar Đurđevac Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Pitomača and 2.78 for Graničar Đurđevac, a combined total of 3.79. That distribution gives Graničar Đurđevac the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Graničar Đurđevac win
74.2% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 2.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pitomača home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Graničar Đurđevac away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Graničar Đurđevac to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 11% / 15% / 74% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Pitomača and 2.78 for Graničar Đurđevac, a combined 3.79 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
26%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.8%
- 0–28.7%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–38.1%
- 1–16.3%
Recent form
Pitomača
- 2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bjelovar · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-11-29T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Daruvar · 6-2 (W)
- 2025-11-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Koprivnica · 0-6 (L)
- 2025-11-15T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nedelišće · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Garić Garešnica · 1-0 (W)
Graničar Đurđevac
- 2026-08-01T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Mladost Petrinja · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bjelovar · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-01-28T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Bjelovar · 2-6 (L)
- 2025-11-29T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Graničar Kotoriba · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-11-24T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Bilogora 91 · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third NL - Sjever table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Koprivnica | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 35 |
| 2 | Graničar Đurđevac | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 35 | 34 |
| 3 | Dinamo Predavac | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 31 |
| 4 | Rudar Mursko Središće | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Bilogora 91 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 25 |
| 6 | Međimurec Pretetinec | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 25 |
| 7 | Polet | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 23 |
| 8 | Graničar Kotoriba | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 21 |
| 9 | Pitomača | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -9 | 19 |
| 10 | Slatina | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 11 | Podravina Ludbreg | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | -10 | 15 |
| 12 | Medjimurje Cakovec | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -9 | 13 |
| 13 | Garić Garešnica | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -13 | 13 |
| 14 | Daruvar | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 11 |
| 15 | Nedelišće | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | -16 | 10 |
| 16 | Dinamo Domašinec | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -25 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Graničar Đurđevac win, at 74.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.