Pitomača vs Rudar Mursko Središće Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Pitomača and 2.16 for Rudar Mursko Središće, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives Rudar Mursko Središće the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Rudar Mursko Središće win

55.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.36 – 2.16

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pitomača home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rudar Mursko Središće away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rudar Mursko Središće to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 24% / 21% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.36 goals for Pitomača and 2.16 for Rudar Mursko Središće, a combined 3.52 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Pitomača win24%

Draw21%

Rudar Mursko Središće win56%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

76%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–29.4%
1–18.7%
0–26.9%
1–36.7%
2–26.4%

Recent form

Pitomača

2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bjelovar · 0-0 (D)
2025-11-29T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Daruvar · 6-2 (W)
2025-11-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Koprivnica · 0-6 (L)
2025-11-15T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nedelišće · 1-0 (W)
2025-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Garić Garešnica · 1-0 (W)

Rudar Mursko Središće

2025-11-29T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Slatina · 0-1 (L)
2025-11-22T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Domašinec · 4-0 (W)
2025-11-15T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Daruvar · 3-2 (W)
2025-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Koprivnica · 2-2 (D)
2025-11-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pitomača · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third NL - Sjever table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Koprivnica	15	11	2	2	28	35
2	Graničar Đurđevac	15	10	4	1	35	34
3	Dinamo Predavac	15	9	4	2	15	31
4	Rudar Mursko Središće	15	8	4	3	14	28
5	Bilogora 91	15	8	1	6	3	25
6	Međimurec Pretetinec	15	7	4	4	1	25
7	Polet	15	7	2	6	-2	23
8	Graničar Kotoriba	14	7	0	7	6	21
9	Pitomača	15	5	4	6	-9	19
10	Slatina	15	5	3	7	-4	18
11	Podravina Ludbreg	15	3	6	6	-10	15
12	Medjimurje Cakovec	15	3	4	8	-9	13
13	Garić Garešnica	14	3	4	7	-13	13
14	Daruvar	14	3	2	9	-14	11
15	Nedelišće	14	3	1	10	-16	10
16	Dinamo Domašinec	15	2	3	10	-25	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Rudar Mursko Središće win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.