Highmark Stadium · Referee E. Osmanovic · Analysis updated 10:31 UTC
Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Pittsburgh Riverhounds and 1.14 for Tampa Bay Rowdies, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Tampa Bay Rowdies the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.1% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tampa Bay Rowdies away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 0–113.3%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–27.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.91 (model 56.8% vs market 48.5%, edge +8.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.91 | 48.5% | 56.8% | 1.76 | +8.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.55 | 60.5% | 61.5% | 1.63 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.80 | 31.7% | 32.0% | 3.13 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.5% | 70.6% | 1.42 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.30 | 38.6% | 38.6% | 2.59 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 29.6% | 29.5% | 3.39 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.36 | 69.0% | 68.1% | 1.47 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 51.5% | 43.2% | 2.31 | -8.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- 2026-10-17T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Rhode Island · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Hartford Athletic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Orange County SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Detroit City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Loudoun United · 1-0 (W)
Tampa Bay Rowdies
- 2026-10-03T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Miami FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · A vs San Antonio · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham Legion · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Hartford Athletic · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Brooklyn · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-21T23:30:00.000Z · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0-3 Tampa Bay Rowdies (USL Championship)
- 2025-08-30T23:30:00.000Z · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1-2 Tampa Bay Rowdies (USL Championship)
- 2025-06-21T23:00:00.000Z · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies (USL Championship)
- 2024-09-14T23:30:00.000Z · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1-2 Tampa Bay Rowdies (USL Championship)
- 2024-04-06T23:00:00.000Z · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies (USL Championship)
- 2023-10-07T23:30:00.000Z · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies (USL Championship)
- 2023-08-05T23:00:00.000Z · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies (USL Championship)
- 2022-06-25T23:00:00.000Z · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2-5 Tampa Bay Rowdies (USL Championship)
- 2022-05-21T23:30:00.000Z · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1-3 Tampa Bay Rowdies (USL Championship)
- 2021-10-10T22:00:00.000Z · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies (USL Championship)
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 61 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 53 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 51 |
| 4 | Louisville City | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 47 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 45 |
| 6 | Hartford Athletic | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 43 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 42 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -6 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | -10 | 31 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 30 | 6 | 12 | 12 | -6 | 30 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -29 | 21 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 30 | 3 | 5 | 22 | -46 | 14 |
| 1 | New Mexico United | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 52 |
| 2 | Sacramento Republic | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 14 | 51 |
| 3 | El Paso Locomotive | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 50 |
| 4 | Lexington | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 48 |
| 5 | Colorado Springs | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 6 | San Antonio | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 45 |
| 7 | FC Tulsa | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 43 |
| 8 | Phoenix Rising | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | -1 | 40 |
| 9 | Orange County SC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | -1 | 38 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | -20 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.