Myyrmaaen jalkapallostadion · Analysis updated 06:44 UTC
PK-35 Vantaa W vs HJS Akatemia W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.88 expected goals for PK-35 Vantaa W and 1.49 for HJS Akatemia W, a combined total of 4.37. That distribution gives PK-35 Vantaa W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
PK-35 Vantaa W win
66.2% probability
Expected goals
2.88 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PK-35 Vantaa W home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
HJS Akatemia W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates PK-35 Vantaa W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 16% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.88 goals for PK-35 Vantaa W and 1.49 for HJS Akatemia W, a combined 4.37 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.8%
- 3–17.5%
- 2–25.8%
- 3–25.6%
- 1–15.4%
Recent form
PK-35 Vantaa W
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs VIFK W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs EBK W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Honka W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs HJS Akatemia W · 10-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs JyPK W · 6-0 (W)
HJS Akatemia W
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs EBK W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Honka W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs JyPK W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs PK-35 Vantaa W · 0-10 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs VIFK W · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kansallinen Liiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK W | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 39 |
| 2 | Åland United W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 28 |
| 3 | KuPS W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | HPS W | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Ilves W | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 7 | PK-35 Vantaa W | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 8 | VIFK W | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | -32 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is PK-35 Vantaa W win, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.