· Analysis updated 12:42 UTC
Planaltina DF vs Candango Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Planaltina DF and 0.60 for Candango, a combined total of 2.31. That distribution gives Planaltina DF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Planaltina DF win
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.71 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Planaltina DF home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Planaltina DF to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 23% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for Planaltina DF and 0.60 for Candango, a combined 2.31 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 37%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.9%
- 2–014.5%
- 1–110.2%
- 0–09.9%
- 2–18.7%
Recent form
Planaltina DF
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Legião · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Taguatinga EC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Canaa EC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Candango · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Luziânia · 1-2 (L)
Candango
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Brasiliense B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taguatinga EC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Planaltina DF | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Canaa EC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | GREVAL | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Legião | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Luziânia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 4 |
| 7 | Candango | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Planaltina DF win, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.