· Analysis updated 00:43 UTC
Plasencia vs Moralo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Plasencia and 1.65 for Moralo, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives Moralo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Moralo win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Plasencia home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Moralo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Moralo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 23% / 25% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Plasencia and 1.65 for Moralo, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.7%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.1%
Recent form
Plasencia
- 2023-04-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Llerenense · 0-0 (D)
- 2023-04-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Fuente Cantos · 2-1 (W)
- 2023-04-06T10:30:00.000Z · A vs La Estrella · 2-1 (W)
- 2023-04-01T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Miajadas · 1-1 (D)
- 2023-03-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Olivenza · 1-2 (L)
Moralo
- 2026-06-07T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Badajoz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Badajoz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Azuaga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Azuaga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Don Benito · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azuaga | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Llerenense | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Moralo | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | Villanovense | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Castuera | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | Puebla Calzada | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Gévora | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Jerez | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Cabeza Buey | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Villafranca | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | CD Zafra | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Quintana | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 | Jaraíz | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Santa Amalia | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Montijo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Plasencia | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Atlético Pueblonuevo | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 3 |
| 18 | Guadiana | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -18 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Moralo win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.