· Analysis updated 12:23 UTC
Platense Res. vs Boca Juniors Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.54 expected goals for Platense Res. and 1.22 for Boca Juniors Res., a combined total of 1.76. That distribution gives Boca Juniors Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Boca Juniors Res. win
52.8% probability
Expected goals
0.54 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Platense Res. home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boca Juniors Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 17% / 31% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.54 goals for Platense Res. and 1.22 for Boca Juniors Res., a combined 1.76 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 26% and both teams to score at 29%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 21%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–121.0%
- 0–017.3%
- 0–212.7%
- 1–111.4%
- 1–09.3%
Recent form
Platense Res.
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos Juniors Res. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferro 2 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors Res. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente Res. · 1-1 (D)
Boca Juniors Res.
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Boca Juniors Res. win, at 52.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.