· Analysis updated 06:28 UTC
Platense Res. vs Estudiantes La Plata Res Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Platense Res. and 1.56 for Estudiantes La Plata Res, a combined total of 2.26. That distribution gives Estudiantes La Plata Res the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Estudiantes La Plata Res win
58.0% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Platense Res. home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Estudiantes La Plata Res away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estudiantes La Plata Res to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 17% / 25% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for Platense Res. and 1.56 for Estudiantes La Plata Res, a combined 2.26 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.2%
- 0–212.7%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–010.4%
- 1–28.9%
Recent form
Platense Res.
- 2026-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newell's Old Boys Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa y Justicia Res. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos Juniors Res. · 0-2 (L)
Estudiantes La Plata Res
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia La Plata Res. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Res. · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferro 2 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors Res. · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Estudiantes La Plata Res win, at 58.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.