Platense Res. vs San Martín San Juan Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.48 expected goals for Platense Res. and 0.83 for San Martín San Juan Res., a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Platense Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Platense Res. win

73.5% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.48 – 0.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Platense Res. home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Martín San Juan Res. away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Platense Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 16% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.48 goals for Platense Res. and 0.83 for San Martín San Juan Res., a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Platense Res. win74%

Draw16%

San Martín San Juan Res. win11%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

27%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

2–011.3%
3–09.3%
2–19.3%
1–09.1%
3–17.7%

Recent form

Platense Res.

2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Res. · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos Juniors Res. · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferro 2 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors Res. · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente Res. · 1-1 (D)

San Martín San Juan Res.

2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa y Justicia Res. · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Res. · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferro 2 · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors Res. · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-07-16T18:00:00.000Z · Platense Res. 0-0 San Martín San Juan Res. (Reserve League)
2026-02-05T20:00:00.000Z · Platense Res. 2-1 San Martín San Juan Res. (Reserve League)
2025-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · Platense Res. 1-0 San Martín San Juan Res. (Reserve League)
2025-04-16T18:00:00.000Z · Platense Res. 1-1 San Martín San Juan Res. (Reserve League)

Reserve League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vélez Sársfield Res.	20	15	2	3	29	47
2	Boca Juniors Res.	20	12	3	5	24	39
3	Racing Club Res.	21	11	6	4	7	39
4	River Plate Res.	21	11	4	6	9	37
5	Independiente Res.	19	11	3	5	19	36
6	Lanús Res.	19	11	2	6	13	35
7	Newell's Old Boys Res.	19	10	4	5	9	34
8	Quilmes 2	18	10	3	5	8	33
9	Defensa y Justicia Res.	18	9	5	4	14	32
10	Atlético Tucumán Res.	19	9	3	7	-2	30
11	Unión Santa Fe Res.	18	7	8	3	4	29
12	Estudiantes La Plata Res	18	8	4	6	9	28
13	Argentinos Juniors Res.	18	7	7	4	6	28
14	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	18	8	3	7	-2	27
15	Talleres Córdoba Res.	18	7	5	6	6	26
16	Huracán Res.	18	7	5	6	6	26
17	Rosario Central Res.	18	7	5	6	3	26
18	Platense Res.	18	7	5	6	-3	26
19	Deportivo Riestra Res.	18	7	4	7	7	25
20	Independiente Riva. Res.	18	7	3	8	0	24
21	Instituto Res.	18	5	9	4	-1	24
22	San Lorenzo Res.	18	6	6	6	-2	24
23	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	18	6	5	7	2	23
24	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	18	6	5	7	-3	23
25	Banfield Res.	18	6	5	7	-4	23
26	Ferro 2	18	6	4	8	-3	22
27	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	18	5	4	9	-12	19
28	Colón Res.	18	5	3	10	-8	18
29	Aldosivi Res.	18	5	3	10	-11	18
30	Barracas Central Res.	18	4	5	9	-13	17
31	Sarmiento Res.	18	4	4	10	-10	16
32	Tigre Res.	18	4	4	10	-10	16
33	Godoy Cruz Res.	18	4	3	11	-10	15
34	Atl. Rafaela 2	18	3	3	12	-15	12
35	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	18	2	5	11	-23	11
36	San Martín San Juan Res.	18	2	2	14	-43	8
1	Independiente Res.	12	8	3	1	16	27
2	Lanús Res.	12	8	2	2	10	26
3	Deportivo Riestra Res.	12	7	2	3	11	23
4	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	12	6	5	1	6	23
5	River Plate Res.	12	5	7	0	10	22
6	Boca Juniors Res.	12	6	4	2	8	22
7	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	12	6	4	2	2	22
8	Estudiantes La Plata Res	12	6	3	3	8	21
9	Vélez Sársfield Res.	12	5	5	2	8	20
10	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	12	6	2	4	2	20
11	Rosario Central Res.	12	5	5	2	1	20
12	Atl. Rafaela 2	12	5	4	3	0	19
13	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	12	4	5	3	5	17
14	Huracán Res.	12	5	2	5	4	17
15	Sarmiento Res.	12	4	5	3	3	17
16	Godoy Cruz Res.	12	4	5	3	2	17
17	San Lorenzo Res.	12	5	2	5	2	17
18	Talleres Córdoba Res.	12	4	5	3	1	17
19	Unión Santa Fe Res.	12	3	7	2	7	16
20	Quilmes 2	12	4	4	4	0	16
21	Instituto Res.	12	3	6	3	-1	15
22	Atlético Tucumán Res.	12	4	3	5	-4	15
23	Newell's Old Boys Res.	12	3	5	4	2	14
24	Tigre Res.	12	4	2	6	-5	14
25	Racing Club Res.	12	2	7	3	-1	13
26	Defensa y Justicia Res.	12	2	6	4	-1	12
27	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	12	3	3	6	-9	12
28	Aldosivi Res.	12	2	5	5	-4	11
29	Argentinos Juniors Res.	12	2	5	5	-5	11
30	San Martín San Juan Res.	12	2	4	6	-12	10
31	Independiente Riva. Res.	12	2	3	7	-10	9
32	Banfield Res.	12	2	3	7	-12	9
33	Colón Res.	12	2	2	8	-9	8
34	Barracas Central Res.	12	1	5	6	-11	8
35	Platense Res.	12	0	7	5	-9	7
36	Ferro 2	12	1	3	8	-15	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Platense Res. win, at 73.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.