Estadio Ciudad de Vicente Lopez · Referee N. Ramirez · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Platense vs Argentinos JRS Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Platense and 0.97 for Argentinos JRS, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Argentinos JRS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.2% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Platense home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Argentinos JRS away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.5%
- 0–116.0%
- 1–013.7%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–27.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.62 (model 65.0% vs market 57.6%, edge +7.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.62 | 57.6% | 65.0% | 1.54 | +7.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.35 | 69.8% | 70.2% | 1.42 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 3.10 | 29.7% | 29.8% | 3.36 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.80 | 32.8% | 32.8% | 3.05 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.45 | 37.5% | 37.4% | 2.67 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.40 | 67.3% | 67.2% | 1.49 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.50 | 62.8% | 62.6% | 1.60 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.20 | 42.4% | 35.0% | 2.86 | -7.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Platense
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentinos JRS · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Velez Sarsfield · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes L.P. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Newells Old Boys · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 2-1 (W)
Argentinos JRS
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Tigre · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosario Central · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-23T01:15:00.000Z · Platense 0-1 Argentinos JRS (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-07-26T22:00:00.000Z · Platense 0-0 Argentinos JRS (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-02-04T00:30:00.000Z · Platense 0-1 Argentinos JRS (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-10-27T18:00:00.000Z · Platense 2-1 Argentinos JRS (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-02-26T22:30:00.000Z · Platense 1-3 Argentinos JRS (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-10-03T00:00:00.000Z · Platense 0-0 Argentinos JRS (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-06-03T00:30:00.000Z · Platense 0-1 Argentinos JRS (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-08-27T21:00:00.000Z · Platense 2-0 Argentinos JRS (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-05-03T00:30:00.000Z · Platense 1-1 Argentinos JRS (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2021-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · Platense 0-0 Argentinos JRS (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.