Estadio Ciudad de Vicente Lopez · Referee A. Carranza · Analysis updated 06:18 UTC
Platense vs Deportivo Riestra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Platense and 0.90 for Deportivo Riestra, a combined total of 1.72. That distribution gives Deportivo Riestra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.9% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Platense home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Riestra away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–017.8%
- 0–116.0%
- 1–014.7%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–27.2%
Recent form
Platense
- 2026-10-17T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Lanus · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentinos JRS · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Velez Sarsfield · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes L.P. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Newells Old Boys · 0-1 (L)
Deportivo Riestra
- 2026-10-20T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Union Santa Fe · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T17:45:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia M. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanus · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-04T22:00:00.000Z · Platense 1-1 Deportivo Riestra (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2026-03-02T22:15:00.000Z · Platense 0-0 Deportivo Riestra (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-10-13T21:30:00.000Z · Platense 1-1 Deportivo Riestra (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-04-07T18:30:00.000Z · Platense 0-1 Deportivo Riestra (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-11-08T00:00:00.000Z · Platense 0-0 Deportivo Riestra (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2021-01-25T01:25:00.000Z · Platense 0-0 Deportivo Riestra (Primera Nacional)
- 2017-07-04T18:35:00.000Z · Platense 0-0 Deportivo Riestra (Primera B Metropolitana)
- 2017-04-15T16:05:00.000Z · Platense 0-4 Deportivo Riestra (Primera B Metropolitana)
- 2016-11-22T22:00:00.000Z · Platense 1-0 Deportivo Riestra (Primera B Metropolitana)
- 2015-07-12T18:00:00.000Z · Platense 2-1 Deportivo Riestra (Primera B Metropolitana)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.