· Analysis updated 06:16 UTC
Platense vs Fuerte San Francisco Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Platense and 1.25 for Fuerte San Francisco, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Platense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Platense win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Platense home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fuerte San Francisco away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–07.4%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Platense
- 2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Águila · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Balboa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Isidro Metapán · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Cacahuatique · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 0-3 (L)
Fuerte San Francisco
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Cacahuatique · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-01T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Firpo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-24T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · Platense 0-0 Fuerte San Francisco (Primera Division)
- 2026-07-26T21:00:00.000Z · Platense 1-1 Fuerte San Francisco (Primera Division)
- 2026-04-21T21:00:00.000Z · Platense 0-1 Fuerte San Francisco (Copa Presidente)
- 2026-04-15T21:30:00.000Z · Platense 1-1 Fuerte San Francisco (Primera Division)
- 2026-04-09T21:00:00.000Z · Platense 1-1 Fuerte San Francisco (Copa Presidente)
- 2026-02-18T21:15:00.000Z · Platense 1-1 Fuerte San Francisco (Primera Division)
- 2025-11-01T21:15:00.000Z · Platense 0-0 Fuerte San Francisco (Primera Division)
- 2025-08-31T21:15:00.000Z · Platense 1-1 Fuerte San Francisco (Primera Division)
- 2025-03-30T21:30:00.000Z · Platense 2-2 Fuerte San Francisco (Primera Division)
- 2025-02-02T21:00:00.000Z · Platense 2-0 Fuerte San Francisco (Primera Division)
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Firpo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 31 |
| 2 | FAS | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 31 |
| 3 | Isidro Metapán | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 30 |
| 4 | Águila | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 24 |
| 5 | Inter | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 23 |
| 6 | Platense | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 22 |
| 7 | Alianza | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Municipal Limeño | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Inca Aruba | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -16 | 16 |
| 10 | Atletico Balboa | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -8 | 14 |
| 11 | Cacahuatique | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -11 | 12 |
| 12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Platense win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.