· Analysis updated 14:57 UTC
Platense vs Inter Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Platense and 1.20 for Inter, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Inter the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Platense home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Inter away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inter to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 36% / 28% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Platense and 1.20 for Inter, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–010.9%
- 0–09.3%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
Platense
- 2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Águila · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Balboa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Isidro Metapán · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Cacahuatique · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 0-3 (L)
Inter
- 2026-10-04T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Fuerte San Francisco · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Águila · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Balboa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Isidro Metapán · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T01:00:00.000Z · H vs FAS · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FAS | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 30 |
| 2 | Firpo | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 28 |
| 3 | Isidro Metapán | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 26 |
| 4 | Águila | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 5 | Inter | 15 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Alianza | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | Platense | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Municipal Limeño | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 | Inca Aruba | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 16 |
| 10 | Atletico Balboa | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 13 |
| 11 | Fuerte San Francisco | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -13 | 12 |
| 12 | Cacahuatique | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -11 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.