Estadio Ciudad de Vicente Lopez · Referee S. Martinez · Analysis updated 06:36 UTC
Platense vs Newells Old Boys Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for Platense and 0.76 for Newells Old Boys, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Platense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
74.7% probability
Expected goals
1.09 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Platense home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Newells Old Boys away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.1%
- 0–015.7%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–112.0%
- 2–09.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.65 (model 64.7% vs market 56.6%, edge +8.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.65 | 56.6% | 64.7% | 1.55 | +8.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.40 | 67.4% | 68.3% | 1.46 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Home | 2.15 | 42.8% | 43.0% | 2.33 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 31.7% | 31.7% | 3.15 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.60 | 25.5% | 25.3% | 3.95 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.65 | 57.2% | 57.0% | 1.75 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 75.5% | 74.7% | 1.34 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.15 | 43.4% | 35.3% | 2.83 | -8.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Platense
- 2026-10-17T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Lanus · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentinos JRS · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Velez Sarsfield · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes L.P. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Newells Old Boys · 0-1 (L)
Newells Old Boys
- 2026-10-19T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia M. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanus · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Velez Sarsfield · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · Platense 0-1 Newells Old Boys (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2026-03-11T01:00:00.000Z · Platense 1-1 Newells Old Boys (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-05-11T00:15:00.000Z · Platense 0-2 Newells Old Boys (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-03-16T00:00:00.000Z · Platense 0-0 Newells Old Boys (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-10-31T00:15:00.000Z · Platense 0-0 Newells Old Boys (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-01-29T20:00:00.000Z · Platense 2-2 Newells Old Boys (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-07-09T23:30:00.000Z · Platense 1-1 Newells Old Boys (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-04-03T22:00:00.000Z · Platense 1-3 Newells Old Boys (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2021-08-07T00:15:00.000Z · Platense 0-1 Newells Old Boys (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.