Platges Calvià vs Andratx Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Platges Calvià and 0.95 for Andratx, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Platges Calvià the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Platges Calvià win

56.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Platges Calvià home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Andratx away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Platges Calvià win57%

Draw23%

Andratx win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–011.6%
1–111.1%
2–010.3%
2–19.8%
0–06.6%

Recent form

Platges Calvià

2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sineu · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Migjorn · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Cardassar · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Binissalem · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Manacor · 1-2 (L)

Andratx

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Binissalem · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Manacor · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs PE Sant Jordi · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Llosetense · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2023-04-09T14:30:00.000Z · Platges Calvià 0-0 Andratx (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
2022-12-10T16:00:00.000Z · Platges Calvià 2-1 Andratx (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
2021-05-15T17:30:00.000Z · Platges Calvià 0-1 Andratx (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
2021-04-25T10:00:00.000Z · Platges Calvià 0-0 Andratx (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
2020-02-08T15:30:00.000Z · Platges Calvià 0-0 Andratx (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
2019-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · Platges Calvià 3-1 Andratx (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Constància	7	5	1	1	10	16
2	Manacor	7	5	1	1	9	16
3	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	5	1	0	9	16
4	Platges Calvià	7	5	0	2	7	15
5	Cardassar	7	4	1	2	6	13
6	Santanyí	6	3	3	0	5	12
7	Formentera	6	3	2	1	4	11
8	PE Sant Jordi	6	3	2	1	3	11
9	Llosetense	7	3	1	3	-1	10
10	Alcúdia	6	3	0	3	0	9
11	Porreres	6	3	0	3	0	9
12	Mercadal	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	Binissalem	6	2	0	4	-3	6
14	Andratx	7	1	2	4	-4	5
15	Arenal	7	1	1	5	-9	4
16	Migjorn	7	1	1	5	-9	4
17	Sineu	7	0	1	6	-13	1
18	Inter Ibiza	6	0	1	5	-13	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Platges Calvià win, at 56.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.