· Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Platges Calvià vs Migjorn Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Platges Calvià and 0.83 for Migjorn, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Platges Calvià the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Platges Calvià win
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Platges Calvià home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Migjorn away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Platges Calvià to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 21% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Platges Calvià and 0.83 for Migjorn, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.2%
- 2–011.9%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.7%
Recent form
Platges Calvià
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sineu · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Migjorn · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Cardassar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Binissalem · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Manacor · 1-2 (L)
Migjorn
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Binissalem · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Manacor · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs PE Sant Jordi · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-05-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Porreres · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-01-26T11:30:00.000Z · Platges Calvià 3-1 Migjorn (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
- 2024-09-15T10:00:00.000Z · Platges Calvià 4-0 Migjorn (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manacor | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Cardassar | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Constància | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Llosetense | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Platges Calvià | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | Santanyí | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Porreres | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Formentera | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | PE Sant Jordi | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Alcúdia | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Andratx | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Binissalem | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 15 | Arenal | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | Migjorn | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 17 | Inter Ibiza | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 18 | Sineu | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Platges Calvià win, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.