Plauen vs FSV Zwickau Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Plauen and 2.35 for FSV Zwickau, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives FSV Zwickau the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.15 – 2.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Plauen home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FSV Zwickau away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FSV Zwickau to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 37% / 19% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Plauen and 2.35 for FSV Zwickau, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Plauen win37%

Draw19%

FSV Zwickau win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals66%

Both teams to score80%

Correct score

2–27.1%
1–26.6%
2–16.0%
1–15.6%
2–35.6%

Recent form

Plauen

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Germania Halberstadt · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs ZFC Meuselwitz · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Sandersdorf · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Weissenfels · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Krieschow · 1-2 (L)

FSV Zwickau

2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Altglienicke · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · A vs BSG Chemie Leipzig · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Babelsberg 03 · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs RSV Eintracht · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Luckenwalde · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-14T16:00:00.000Z · Plauen 3-7 FSV Zwickau (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-03-19T18:00:00.000Z · Plauen 0-2 FSV Zwickau (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2024-08-20T17:00:00.000Z · Plauen 0-3 FSV Zwickau (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2020-08-18T16:30:00.000Z · Plauen 2-7 FSV Zwickau (Friendlies Clubs)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.