· Analysis updated 07:55 UTC
Playas Sotavento vs Real Unión de Tenerife Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.86 expected goals for Playas Sotavento and 2.02 for Real Unión de Tenerife, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Real Unión de Tenerife the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Real Unión de Tenerife win
64.3% probability
Expected goals
0.86 – 2.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Unión de Tenerife away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Unión de Tenerife to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 15% / 21% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.86 goals for Playas Sotavento and 2.02 for Real Unión de Tenerife, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 50%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.4%
- 0–111.3%
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 0–37.7%
Recent form
Playas Sotavento
Real Unión de Tenerife
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Playas Sotavento · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Laguna de Duero · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Panadería Pulido · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Marino · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Los Llanos · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD San Fernando | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| 2 | Panadería Pulido | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | San Miguel | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Unión de Tenerife | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Tenerife C | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Marino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Las Palmas III | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Unión Sur Yaiza | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Mensajero | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Los Llanos | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | San Bartolomé | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Lanzarote | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Anaza | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | Villa Santa Brígida | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Estrella | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Playas Sotavento | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | Laguna de Duero | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 2 |
| 18 | Villaverde Norte | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Unión de Tenerife win, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.