Plaza Amador vs Xelajú Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for Plaza Amador and 1.66 for Xelajú, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Plaza Amador the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Plaza Amador win

53.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.35 – 1.66

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Plaza Amador home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Xelajú away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Plaza Amador to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 20% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.35 goals for Plaza Amador and 1.66 for Xelajú, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Plaza Amador win53%

Draw20%

Xelajú win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals57%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

2–18.3%
1–17.1%
2–26.9%
3–16.5%
1–25.9%

Recent form

Plaza Amador

2026-10-04T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Universitario · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Cocle · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Veraguas · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Independiente de La Chorrera · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Herrera · 4-1 (W)

Xelajú

2026-10-24T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Municipal · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-20T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Antigua GFC · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Malacateco · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Aurora · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-04T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo San Pedro · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

CONCACAF Central American Cup table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CD Olimpia	6	6	0	0	12	18
2	LD Alajuelense	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	CD Motagua	6	3	3	0	9	12
4	CS Cartagines	6	3	3	0	7	12
5	Deportivo Saprissa	6	3	1	2	3	10
6	Alianza	6	3	1	2	-2	10
7	CD Marathon	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	CS Herediano	4	2	1	1	2	7
9	Firpo	6	2	1	3	-2	7
10	Municipal	4	1	3	0	1	6
11	Plaza Amador	4	2	0	2	0	6
12	Mixco	4	2	0	2	0	6
13	Real Estelí	4	2	0	2	-1	6
14	FAS	4	1	1	2	0	4
15	Xelajú	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Alianza FC	4	1	0	3	-4	3
17	Diriangén	4	1	0	3	-6	3
18	UMECIT	4	0	0	4	-6	0
19	Antigua GFC	4	0	0	4	-7	0
20	Verdes	4	0	0	4	-13	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Plaza Amador win, at 53.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.