· Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
Plopeni vs Flacăra Moreni Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Plopeni and 2.25 for Flacăra Moreni, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Flacăra Moreni the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Flacăra Moreni win
67.9% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Plopeni home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Flacăra Moreni to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 14% / 19% / 68% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Plopeni and 2.25 for Flacăra Moreni, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 53%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
32%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.8%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–18.7%
- 0–38.1%
Recent form
Plopeni
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Râmnicu Sărat · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pucioasa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Voința Crevedia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Blejoi · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Progresul Draganesti · 2-4 (L)
Flacăra Moreni
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flacăra Moreni | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Tunari | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Blejoi | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Berca | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Progresul Draganesti | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 6 | Voința Crevedia | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Plopeni | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 8 | Pucioasa | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Urban Titu | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Râmnicu Sărat | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 11 | Viitorul Corbeanca | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 12 | Păuleşti | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Flacăra Moreni win, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.