· Analysis updated 16:29 UTC
Plymouth Parkway vs Bath City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Plymouth Parkway and 1.14 for Bath City, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Plymouth Parkway the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Plymouth Parkway win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Plymouth Parkway home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bath City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Plymouth Parkway to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 25% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Plymouth Parkway and 1.14 for Bath City, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–17.5%
Recent form
Plymouth Parkway
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Horsham · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Gloucester City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bath City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Frome Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Frome Town · 2-0 (W)
Bath City
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Malvern Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Plymouth Parkway · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Taunton Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chippenham Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Weymouth · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Plymouth Parkway win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.