· Analysis updated 08:52 UTC
Plymouth Parkway vs Frome Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Plymouth Parkway and 1.17 for Frome Town, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Plymouth Parkway the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Plymouth Parkway win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Plymouth Parkway home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Frome Town away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Plymouth Parkway to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 23% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Plymouth Parkway and 1.17 for Frome Town, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.9%
- 2–08.4%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Plymouth Parkway
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Basingstoke Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chertsey Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wimborne Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chichester City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Horsham · 2-1 (W)
Frome Town
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bath City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Malvern Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chippenham Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sholing · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yate Town · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Southern South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poole Town | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Uxbridge | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 26 |
| 3 | Bath City | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 26 |
| 4 | Hanworth Villa | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 24 |
| 5 | Plymouth Parkway | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 23 |
| 6 | Chichester City | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 22 |
| 7 | Taunton Town | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Chertsey Town | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | Frome Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 10 | Wimborne Town | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 11 | Gosport Borough | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 12 | Berkhamsted | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Basingstoke Town | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 15 |
| 14 | Bracknell Town | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 15 | Yate Town | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 13 |
| 16 | Evesham United | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 13 |
| 17 | Sholing | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 18 | Hanwell Town | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 19 | Malvern Town | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 11 |
| 20 | Gloucester City | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 21 | Havant & Wville | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
| 22 | Chippenham Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Plymouth Parkway win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.