· Analysis updated 01:41 UTC
Plymouth U21 vs Leicester City U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Plymouth U21 and 2.25 for Leicester City U21, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Leicester City U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Leicester City U21 win
59.9% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leicester City U21 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leicester City U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 20% / 20% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Plymouth U21 and 2.25 for Leicester City U21, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.6%
- 1–18.5%
- 0–27.6%
- 1–37.2%
- 0–16.8%
Recent form
Plymouth U21
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff City U21 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Leicester City U21 · 1-3 (L)
Leicester City U21
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs West Ham United U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton U21 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Truro City · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Bournemouth U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-31T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United U21 · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · Plymouth U21 1-3 Leicester City U21 (Premier League Cup)
Premier League Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Leicester City U21 win, at 59.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.