Home Park · Referee M. Woods · Analysis updated 14:03 UTC
Plymouth vs Barnsley Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.07 for Barnsley, a combined total of 3.24. That distribution gives Plymouth the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Plymouth win
62.6% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Plymouth home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Barnsley away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.2%
- 1–19.1%
- 1–08.5%
- 3–17.2%
Recent form
Plymouth
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs AFC Wimbledon · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newport County · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leyton Orient · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Burton Albion · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace U21 · 5-1 (W)
Barnsley
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stockport County · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds United U21 · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Leicester · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · Plymouth 3-0 Barnsley (League One)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · Plymouth 1-3 Barnsley (League One)
- 2023-03-11T15:00:00.000Z · Plymouth 0-3 Barnsley (League One)
- 2022-07-30T14:00:00.000Z · Plymouth 1-0 Barnsley (League One)
- 2019-04-22T14:00:00.000Z · Plymouth 0-3 Barnsley (League One)
- 2018-10-02T18:45:00.000Z · Plymouth 1-1 Barnsley (League One)
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | Stockport County | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 23 |
| 3 | Bradford | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 22 |
| 4 | Plymouth | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Reading | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 6 | Cambridge United | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Oxford United | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 8 | Sheffield Wednesday | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 9 | Mansfield Town | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Luton | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| 11 | Burton Albion | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Stevenage | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 |
| 13 | Leicester | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Wycombe | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -4 | 15 |
| 15 | Leyton Orient | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 14 |
| 16 | AFC Wimbledon | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 13 |
| 17 | Doncaster | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 12 |
| 18 | Milton Keynes Dons | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -6 | 12 |
| 19 | Notts County | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 20 | Blackpool | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 21 | Peterborough | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 22 | Bromley | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -16 | 9 |
| 23 | Barnsley | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 24 | Wigan | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Plymouth win, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.