Stadion Mesta Plzne · Referee Jan Benes, Czechia · Analysis updated 20:47 UTC
Plzen vs Slovácko Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Plzen and 1.58 for Slovácko, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Plzen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Plzen win
53.5% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Plzen home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Slovácko away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Plzen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 20% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Plzen and 1.58 for Slovácko, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 1–17.6%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–26.0%
Recent form
Plzen
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mlada Boleslav · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Praha · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Union St. Gilloise · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sigma Olomouc · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hradec Králové · 0-0 (D)
Slovácko
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Neratovice-Byškovice · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bohemians 1905 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pardubice · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Plzen · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 23 |
| 2 | Slovan Liberec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 20 |
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Sigma Olomouc | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Teplice | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Zbrojovka Brno | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Sparta Praha | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
| 8 | FK Jablonec | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Hradec Králové | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Plzen | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Baník Ostrava | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 10 |
| 12 | Bohemians 1905 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Pardubice | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Artis | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 5 |
| 15 | Slovácko | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 16 | Zlin | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Plzen win, at 53.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.