Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod vs Dinamo Barnaul Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.36 expected goals for Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod and 1.29 for Dinamo Barnaul, a combined total of 4.65. That distribution gives Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod win

76.8% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.36 – 1.29

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 13% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.36 goals for Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod and 1.29 for Dinamo Barnaul, a combined 4.65 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 84% and both teams to score at 69%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Match result (1X2)

Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod win77%

Draw13%

Dinamo Barnaul win11%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

88%

Double chance X2

23%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals84%

Over 3.5 goals68%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

3–17.8%
2–17.0%
4–16.6%
3–06.1%
2–05.4%

Recent form

Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod

2026-09-25T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Barnaul · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs KDV · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylya Sovetov II · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Akron II · 3-2 (W)

Dinamo Barnaul

2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylya Sovetov II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs KDV · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelyabinsk · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Akron II · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Second League - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	22	18	2	2	41	56
2	KDV	22	17	2	3	20	53
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	22	13	4	5	18	43
4	Akron II	22	10	2	10	12	32
5	Krylya Sovetov II	22	6	9	7	-1	27
6	Dinamo Barnaul	22	7	5	10	-19	26
7	Orenburg II	22	6	8	8	-4	26
8	Izhevsk	22	5	8	9	-2	23
9	Ural II	22	5	7	10	-10	22
10	Rubin Kazan 2	22	4	8	10	-10	20
11	Nosta	22	4	6	12	-28	18
12	Chelyabinsk II	22	4	5	13	-17	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod win, at 76.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.

A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.