· Analysis updated 20:01 UTC
Pobeda Valandovo vs Bregalnica Štip Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Pobeda Valandovo and 2.21 for Bregalnica Štip, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Bregalnica Štip the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bregalnica Štip win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 2.21
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pobeda Valandovo home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bregalnica Štip away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 1–18.5%
- 0–27.0%
- 1–36.9%
- 0–16.3%
Recent form
Pobeda Valandovo
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Struga · 1-10 (L)
- 2026-07-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Osogovo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Kamjani · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-02-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Osogovo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-02-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kozuv Gevgelija · 0-3 (L)
Bregalnica Štip
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Skopje · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Sileks · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Teteks · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Shkëndija Haraçinë · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Struga · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-31T13:00:00.000Z · Pobeda Valandovo 1-5 Bregalnica Štip (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · Pobeda Valandovo 0-6 Bregalnica Štip (Cup)
- 2018-04-17T14:00:00.000Z · Pobeda Valandovo 2-7 Bregalnica Štip (Second League)
- 2017-11-04T12:30:00.000Z · Pobeda Valandovo 1-1 Bregalnica Štip (Second League)
- 2017-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · Pobeda Valandovo 1-1 Bregalnica Štip (Second League)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bregalnica Štip win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.