Pobeda vs Lugansk Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Pobeda and 1.20 for Lugansk, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Pobeda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Pobeda win

52.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pobeda home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lugansk away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pobeda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 23% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Pobeda and 1.20 for Lugansk, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Pobeda win52%

Draw23%

Lugansk win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.6%
2–19.7%
1–08.9%
2–08.1%
1–26.4%

Recent form

Pobeda

2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Nalchik · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Makhachkala II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Astrakhan · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Izberbash · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rostov II · 0-4 (L)

Lugansk

2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Nart Cherkessk · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sevastopol · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Chayka 2 · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rostov II · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Shahter Taganrog · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-06-27T14:00:00.000Z · Pobeda 2-1 Lugansk (Second League - Group 1)

Second League - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sevastopol	21	16	2	3	21	50
2	Shahter Taganrog	21	14	4	3	22	46
3	Rostov II	21	14	4	3	29	46
4	Rubin Yalta	20	9	7	4	10	34
5	Pobeda	20	10	3	7	11	33
6	Kyzyltash	21	9	4	8	6	31
7	Nart Cherkessk	20	9	3	8	8	30
8	Spartak Nalchik	20	7	7	6	7	28
9	Druzhba	20	7	6	7	-2	27
10	Lugansk	21	6	6	9	-6	24
11	Astrakhan	20	5	5	10	-10	20
12	Izberbash	21	6	0	15	-38	18
13	Angust Nazran	20	4	4	12	-12	16
14	FK Chayka 2	21	4	2	15	-26	14
15	Dynamo Makhachkala II	21	3	5	13	-20	14
16	PSK Dinskaya	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	24	20	2	2	45	62
2	KDV	24	17	2	5	16	53
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	24	15	4	5	20	49
4	Akron II	24	10	3	11	11	33
5	Krylya Sovetov II	24	7	9	8	1	30
6	Dinamo Barnaul	24	7	6	11	-22	27
1	Orenburg II	23	7	8	8	-2	29
2	Ural II	24	6	7	11	-10	25
3	Izhevsk	23	5	8	10	-3	23
4	Rubin Kazan 2	24	5	8	11	-10	23
5	Nosta	24	5	6	13	-28	21
6	Chelyabinsk II	24	5	5	14	-18	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Pobeda win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.