Stadion Spartak · Analysis updated 09:55 UTC
Pobeda vs Rubin Yalta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Pobeda and 1.27 for Rubin Yalta, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Pobeda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.4% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pobeda home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rubin Yalta away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pobeda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 25% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Pobeda and 1.27 for Rubin Yalta, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.2%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
Pobeda
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Nart Cherkessk · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyzyltash · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Rubin Yalta · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Angust Nazran · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Nalchik · 4-3 (W)
Rubin Yalta
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lugansk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Astrakhan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Pobeda · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Chayka 2 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Shahter Taganrog · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sevastopol | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 50 |
| 2 | Shahter Taganrog | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 46 |
| 3 | Rostov II | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 46 |
| 4 | Rubin Yalta | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 34 |
| 5 | Pobeda | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 33 |
| 6 | Kyzyltash | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 31 |
| 7 | Nart Cherkessk | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Spartak Nalchik | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 28 |
| 9 | Druzhba | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | -2 | 27 |
| 10 | Lugansk | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | -6 | 24 |
| 11 | Astrakhan | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -10 | 20 |
| 12 | Izberbash | 21 | 6 | 0 | 15 | -38 | 18 |
| 13 | Angust Nazran | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -12 | 16 |
| 14 | FK Chayka 2 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 15 | -26 | 14 |
| 15 | Dynamo Makhachkala II | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -20 | 14 |
| 16 | PSK Dinskaya | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Khimik Dzerzhinsk | 24 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 45 | 62 |
| 2 | KDV | 24 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 53 |
| 3 | Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod | 24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 49 |
| 4 | Akron II | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | Krylya Sovetov II | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 30 |
| 6 | Dinamo Barnaul | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | -22 | 27 |
| 1 | Orenburg II | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | -2 | 29 |
| 2 | Ural II | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -10 | 25 |
| 3 | Izhevsk | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | -3 | 23 |
| 4 | Rubin Kazan 2 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 5 | Nosta | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -28 | 21 |
| 6 | Chelyabinsk II | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -18 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.