Pobeda vs Sevastopol Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Pobeda and 1.52 for Sevastopol, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Sevastopol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.31 – 1.52

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pobeda home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sevastopol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 33% / 25% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Pobeda and 1.52 for Sevastopol, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 57%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Pobeda win33%

Draw25%

Sevastopol win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.7%
0–19.0%
1–28.9%
1–07.7%
2–17.7%

Recent form

Pobeda

2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Nart Cherkessk · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyzyltash · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Rubin Yalta · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Angust Nazran · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Nalchik · 4-3 (W)

Sevastopol

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lugansk · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rostov II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rubin Yalta · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyzyltash · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Nalchik · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Second League - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sevastopol	21	16	2	3	21	50
2	Shahter Taganrog	21	14	4	3	22	46
3	Rostov II	21	14	4	3	29	46
4	Rubin Yalta	20	9	7	4	10	34
5	Pobeda	20	10	3	7	11	33
6	Kyzyltash	21	9	4	8	6	31
7	Nart Cherkessk	20	9	3	8	8	30
8	Spartak Nalchik	20	7	7	6	7	28
9	Druzhba	20	7	6	7	-2	27
10	Lugansk	21	6	6	9	-6	24
11	Astrakhan	20	5	5	10	-10	20
12	Izberbash	21	6	0	15	-38	18
13	Angust Nazran	20	4	4	12	-12	16
14	FK Chayka 2	21	4	2	15	-26	14
15	Dynamo Makhachkala II	21	3	5	13	-20	14
16	PSK Dinskaya	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	24	20	2	2	45	62
2	KDV	24	17	2	5	16	53
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	24	15	4	5	20	49
4	Akron II	24	10	3	11	11	33
5	Krylya Sovetov II	24	7	9	8	1	30
6	Dinamo Barnaul	24	7	6	11	-22	27
1	Orenburg II	23	7	8	8	-2	29
2	Ural II	24	6	7	11	-10	25
3	Izhevsk	23	5	8	10	-3	23
4	Rubin Kazan 2	24	5	8	11	-10	23
5	Nosta	24	5	6	13	-28	21
6	Chelyabinsk II	24	5	5	14	-18	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.