Stadion Spartak · Analysis updated 10:02 UTC
Pobeda vs Spartak Nalchik Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Pobeda and 1.15 for Spartak Nalchik, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Pobeda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pobeda win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pobeda home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Nalchik away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–17.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Goals — Under 3.5 at 1.35 (model 70.5% vs market 67.0%, edge +3.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5Value | 1.35 | 67.0% | 70.5% | 1.42 | +3.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.24 | 72.2% | 75.1% | 1.33 | +2.9 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.09 | 43.5% | 45.6% | 2.19 | +2.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.44 | 25.9% | 27.6% | 3.62 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Home | 1.93 | 46.2% | 47.5% | 2.11 | +1.3 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.94 | 47.3% | 48.4% | 2.07 | +1.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.74 | 52.7% | 51.6% | 1.94 | -1.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.66 | 53.9% | 52.5% | 1.90 | -1.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.21 | 73.9% | 72.4% | 1.38 | -1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.61 | 56.5% | 54.4% | 1.84 | -2.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 27.9% | 24.9% | 4.02 | -3.0 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.74 | 33.0% | 29.5% | 3.39 | -3.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Pobeda
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Nart Cherkessk · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyzyltash · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Rubin Yalta · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Angust Nazran · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Nalchik · 4-3 (W)
Spartak Nalchik
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Izberbash · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Chayka 2 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shahter Taganrog · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Astrakhan · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Pobeda · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · Pobeda 4-3 Spartak Nalchik (Second League - Group 1)
- 2026-04-04T12:00:00.000Z · Pobeda 1-4 Spartak Nalchik (Second League - Group 1)
- 2025-06-21T13:30:00.000Z · Pobeda 2-0 Spartak Nalchik (Second League - Group 1)
- 2025-04-05T12:00:00.000Z · Pobeda 1-0 Spartak Nalchik (Second League - Group 1)
- 2024-08-03T13:00:00.000Z · Pobeda 0-4 Spartak Nalchik (Second League - Group 1)
- 2024-04-08T12:30:00.000Z · Pobeda 2-2 Spartak Nalchik (Second League - Group 1)
- 2023-09-23T12:30:00.000Z · Pobeda 3-1 Spartak Nalchik (Second League - Group 1)
- 2023-08-13T13:30:00.000Z · Pobeda 0-4 Spartak Nalchik (Second League - Group 1)
Second League - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sevastopol | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 50 |
| 2 | Shahter Taganrog | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 46 |
| 3 | Rostov II | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 46 |
| 4 | Rubin Yalta | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 34 |
| 5 | Pobeda | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 33 |
| 6 | Kyzyltash | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 31 |
| 7 | Nart Cherkessk | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Spartak Nalchik | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 28 |
| 9 | Druzhba | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | -2 | 27 |
| 10 | Lugansk | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | -6 | 24 |
| 11 | Astrakhan | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -10 | 20 |
| 12 | Izberbash | 21 | 6 | 0 | 15 | -38 | 18 |
| 13 | Angust Nazran | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -12 | 16 |
| 14 | FK Chayka 2 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 15 | -26 | 14 |
| 15 | Dynamo Makhachkala II | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -20 | 14 |
| 16 | PSK Dinskaya | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Khimik Dzerzhinsk | 24 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 45 | 62 |
| 2 | KDV | 24 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 53 |
| 3 | Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod | 24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 49 |
| 4 | Akron II | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | Krylya Sovetov II | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 30 |
| 6 | Dinamo Barnaul | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | -22 | 27 |
| 1 | Orenburg II | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | -2 | 29 |
| 2 | Ural II | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | -10 | 25 |
| 3 | Izhevsk | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | -3 | 23 |
| 4 | Rubin Kazan 2 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 5 | Nosta | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -28 | 21 |
| 6 | Chelyabinsk II | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -18 | 20 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pobeda win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.