Goce Delchev - Prilep · Analysis updated 16:32 UTC
Pobeda vs Vardar Negotino Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Pobeda and 2.90 for Vardar Negotino, a combined total of 5.13. That distribution gives Vardar Negotino the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 84% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vardar Negotino win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 2.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pobeda home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vardar Negotino away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vardar Negotino to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 30% / 18% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Pobeda and 2.90 for Vardar Negotino, a combined 5.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.2%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–25.6%
- 1–35.4%
- 3–24.6%
Recent form
Pobeda
- 2026-05-23T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bregalnica Štip · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-05-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Vardar Negotino · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozuv Gevgelija · 0-8 (L)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Teteks · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Osogovo · 1-8 (L)
Vardar Negotino
- 2026-05-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Kozuv Gevgelija · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Pobeda · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Osogovo · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkëndija Haraçinë · 2-8 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Belasica · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Pelister | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 21 |
| 3 | FK Rabotnicki | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Akademija Pandev | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Kamjani | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 6 | Teteks | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Belasica | 9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Makedonija GjP | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Kozuv Gevgelija | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Detonit Plachkovica | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 11 | Novaci | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Gorno Lisiče | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Osogovo | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Shkupi 1927 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -28 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vardar Negotino win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 84% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.