Poblense vs Numancia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Poblense and 0.53 for Numancia, a combined total of 1.66. That distribution gives Poblense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 23% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Poblense win

50.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.14 – 0.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Poblense home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Numancia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Poblense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 32% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.14 goals for Poblense and 0.53 for Numancia, a combined 1.66 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Poblense win51%

Draw32%

Numancia win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals50%

Over 2.5 goals23%

Over 3.5 goals9%

Both teams to score28%

Correct score

1–021.6%
0–018.9%
2–012.3%
1–111.3%
0–110.0%

Recent form

Poblense

2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Alcoyano · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Castellonense · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · A vs La Nucía · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Baleares · 1-0 (W)

Numancia

2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Getafe II · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SS Reyes · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs A Madrid III · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Paso · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · Poblense 2-1 Numancia (Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs)
2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · Poblense 1-0 Numancia (Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs)

Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CD Coria	4	3	1	0	5	10
2	UD Logroñés	4	3	1	0	4	10
3	UD Ourense	4	3	1	0	4	10
4	Real Jaén	4	3	0	1	2	9
5	Águilas	4	2	2	0	2	8
6	Poblense	4	2	2	0	2	8
7	SD Logroñés	2	2	0	0	2	6
8	Real Oviedo II	4	2	0	2	-2	6
9	SS Reyes	4	1	2	1	1	5
10	Estepona	2	1	1	0	2	4
11	Atlético Baleares	4	1	1	2	1	4
12	Deportivo Alavés II	2	1	0	1	0	3
13	Xerez	2	0	2	0	0	2
14	Conquense	4	0	2	2	-3	2
15	Reddis	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Deportiva Minera	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Real Madrid III	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Alcoyano	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Coruxo	2	0	1	1	-3	1
20	Castellón II	2	0	0	2	-2	0
21	Utebo	2	0	0	2	-2	0
22	Numancia	2	0	0	2	-2	0
23	Tudelano	2	0	0	2	-2	0
24	Getafe II	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Poblense win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 23%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.