· Analysis updated 16:56 UTC
Poblense vs Peña Deportiva Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Poblense and 1.11 for Peña Deportiva, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Poblense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.7% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Poblense home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Peña Deportiva away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Poblense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 27% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Poblense and 1.11 for Peña Deportiva, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Poblense
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Castellón II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Baleares · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Alcoyano · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Castellonense · 1-2 (L)
Peña Deportiva
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Orihuela · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Valencia II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Elche II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Yeclano · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ucam Murcia | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | Castellón II | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Castellonense | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | La Nucía | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Cieza | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Deportiva Minera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Yeclano | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Alcoyano | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Orihuela | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Lorca Deportiva | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Intercity | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Elche II | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Atlético Baleares | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Poblense | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Mallorca II | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Peña Deportiva | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | Valencia II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 18 | Real Murcia II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.