· Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Poblense vs Valencia II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Poblense and 1.28 for Valencia II, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Valencia II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Valencia II win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Poblense home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Valencia II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Valencia II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 26% / 29% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Poblense and 1.28 for Valencia II, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.5%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–011.4%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–29.2%
Recent form
Poblense
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Alcoyano · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Castellonense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · A vs La Nucía · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Baleares · 1-0 (W)
Valencia II
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Peña Deportiva · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Poblense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Castellón II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ucam Murcia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Mallorca II · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-15T10:30:00.000Z · Poblense 2-2 Valencia II (Segunda División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2025-11-16T11:00:00.000Z · Poblense 1-0 Valencia II (Segunda División RFEF - Group 3)
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón II | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
| 2 | La Nucía | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Castellonense | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Alcoyano | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Ucam Murcia | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
| 6 | Intercity | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Cieza | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Deportiva Minera | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Yeclano | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Orihuela | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 7 |
| 11 | Lorca Deportiva | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Mallorca II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | Atlético Baleares | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | Valencia II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Elche II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Poblense | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 17 | Real Murcia II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Peña Deportiva | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Valencia II win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.