Pocheon vs Ulsan Citizen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Pocheon and 0.69 for Ulsan Citizen, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Pocheon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Pocheon win

58.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.54 – 0.69

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pocheon home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pocheon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 26% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for Pocheon and 0.69 for Ulsan Citizen, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 39%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.

Match result (1X2)

Pocheon win58%

Draw26%

Ulsan Citizen win17%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

1–016.6%
2–012.8%
1–111.4%
0–010.8%
2–18.8%

Recent form

Pocheon

2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Chuncheon · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangpyeong · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeoju Sejong · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Siheung Citizen · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Mokpo City · 2-0 (W)

Ulsan Citizen

2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Siheung Citizen · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Daejeon Korail · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gyeongju HNP · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Busan Transportation · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-23T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Jeonbuk Motors II · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

K3 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Siheung Citizen	23	17	4	2	17	55
2	Pocheon	23	13	7	3	19	46
3	Daejeon Korail	23	12	5	6	15	41
4	Busan Transportation	23	10	7	6	11	37
5	Gyeongju HNP	23	9	8	6	4	35
6	Dangjin Citizen	23	9	4	10	7	31
7	Chuncheon	23	8	6	9	4	30
8	Changwon City	23	7	8	8	-2	29
9	Ulsan Citizen	23	8	4	11	-2	28
10	Yeoju Sejong	23	7	7	9	-3	28
11	Gangneung City	23	7	6	10	-11	27
12	Mokpo City	23	5	9	9	-14	24
13	Yangpyeong	23	3	8	12	-17	17
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	23	1	7	15	-28	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Pocheon win, at 58.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.