Pocheon Stadium · Analysis updated 04:42 UTC
Pocheon vs Yeoju Sejong Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Pocheon and 0.98 for Yeoju Sejong, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Pocheon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pocheon win
50.7% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pocheon home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Yeoju Sejong away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.4%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–09.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Pocheon
- 2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Chuncheon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangpyeong · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeoju Sejong · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Siheung Citizen · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Mokpo City · 2-0 (W)
Yeoju Sejong
- 2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Jeonbuk Motors II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Chuncheon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Pocheon · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mokpo City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Dangjin Citizen · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · Pocheon 1-0 Yeoju Sejong (K3 League)
- 2026-04-26T05:00:00.000Z · Pocheon 4-3 Yeoju Sejong (K3 League)
- 2025-07-26T10:00:00.000Z · Pocheon 0-1 Yeoju Sejong (K3 League)
- 2025-04-06T05:00:00.000Z · Pocheon 2-0 Yeoju Sejong (K3 League)
- 2024-10-05T05:00:00.000Z · Pocheon 1-1 Yeoju Sejong (K3 League)
- 2024-06-09T08:00:00.000Z · Pocheon 1-2 Yeoju Sejong (K3 League)
- 2023-03-04T05:00:00.000Z · Pocheon 3-4 Yeoju Sejong (FA Cup)
K3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siheung Citizen | 24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 55 |
| 2 | Pocheon | 24 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 49 |
| 3 | Daejeon Korail | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 41 |
| 4 | Busan Transportation | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 40 |
| 5 | Gyeongju HNP | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 36 |
| 6 | Dangjin Citizen | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 7 | Chuncheon | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 33 |
| 8 | Gangneung City | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 30 |
| 9 | Changwon City | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 29 |
| 10 | Ulsan Citizen | 24 | 8 | 4 | 12 | -3 | 28 |
| 11 | Yeoju Sejong | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -4 | 28 |
| 12 | Mokpo City | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | -14 | 25 |
| 13 | Yangpyeong | 24 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -16 | 20 |
| 14 | Jeonbuk Motors II | 24 | 1 | 7 | 16 | -29 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pocheon win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.