Stadion Mijeski im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego · Analysis updated 22:47 UTC
Podhale Nowy Targ vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Podhale Nowy Targ and 1.26 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Podhale Nowy Targ the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Podhale Nowy Targ win
57.5% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Podhale Nowy Targ home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Podhale Nowy Targ to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 21% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Podhale Nowy Targ and 1.26 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–07.2%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Podhale Nowy Targ
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Lechia Zielona Góra · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chojniczanka Chojnice · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Legia Warszawa II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 5-0 (W)
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Radomiak Radom · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs ŁKS Łódź · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Unia Skierniewice · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Warta Poznań · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Podhale Nowy Targ win, at 57.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.